Monetary Policy Report February 2025

The recent slowdown in demand is judged to have led to only a small margin of slack opening up, as growth in the supply capacity of the economy appears to have been weakening over the past year. But the MPC judges that this pickup in headline inflation will not lead to additional second-round effects on underlying domestic inflationary pressures in the forecast (Key judgement 1). CPI inflation excluding energy has continued to decline over the past year reaching around 3¼% in the second half of 2024 compared with its peak of nearly 8½% in mid-2023 (Chart 1.1).

We have cut interest rates to 4.5%

Relative to the MPC’s assessment in the February 2024 Report, supply growth is 0.2 percentage points lower in 2025 and 0.4 percentage points higher in 2026. As potential productivity recovers further beyond 2025, aggregate supply growth rises to 1.7% and 1.5% in the second and third years of the forecast, respectively. The slowing in potential supply growth reflects a normalisation in labour supply growth after the strength seen in 2024, partially offset by a recovery in potential productivity growth. However, across the year growth appears to have slowed, from a rate of around 1½% at the start of 2024 on a four-quarter basis to around ¾% by the first quarter of 2025. The MPC expects potential supply growth to slow in 2025 before picking up again to around 1½% in the final year of the period.

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At the time of the February 2024 Report, the evidence suggested that there had been no significant drag on productivity due to the recent energy price shock.footnote Updated analysis continues to support this conclusion. In time, this may be reflected in the LFS data as they incorporate the latest National Population Projections. That said, alternative data sources imply stronger employment growth since mid-2021, which would also reduce measured productivity on a per worker basis. Mechanically this has resulted from moderate GDP growth of 0.9% being outpaced by much stronger growth in total hours worked. In addition, the impacts of the recently increased rates of National Insurance contributions (see Box D), which were incorporated into the November 2024 forecast, are also expected to weigh on participation.

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There also remain risks in both directions around world export price, and hence UK import price inflation. The Committee will continue to monitor the accumulation of evidence from a broad range of indicators of inflation persistence. The Committee is also continuing to monitor closely developments in inflation expectations, including the impact from more salient items of the CPI basket such as energy and food prices (Section 2.6). It remains possible that the path for the medium-term equilibrium rate of unemployment is higher than has been assumed in the forecast, including owing to greater costs of employment, which would be consistent with greater persistence in wage growth. Private sector unit wage cost growth is also projected to fall from 3¾% at the end of 2025 to 2¼% at the end of 2026 and to 1¾% at the end of 2027.

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That was higher than in Q3 when inflation was at the MPC’s 2% target on average. Inflation fell back quite rapidly in 2023, to around 4%, and progress on disinflation has been continuing since then. CPI inflation peaked at around 11% at the end of 2022, following the succession of very large external cost shocks that occurred in 2021–22.

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The headline GfK measure fell sharply in January (left panel, Chart 2.13), to its lowest level since December 2023, while the S&P UK Consumer Sentiment Index also fell notably. Bank staff expect quarterly growth of 0.4% and 0.6% in 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q1, respectively. Business investment growth has been strong recently, expanding by 1.9% in 2024 Q3 and having grown by nearly 1% per quarter on average over the past two years. Three-month on three-month growth in GDP and quarterly GDP growth implied by business surveys (a) The collective steer from surveys now points to a further slowdown in underlying growth at the end of 2024 and into the start of this year (Chart 2.12). GDP growth was above the steer from surveys of businesses’ activity in the first half of last year but then slowed to a rate below what these surveys implied in Q3.

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As a result, underlying growth is currently weaker than expected at the time of the November Report. GDP growth is projected to pick up to 0.1% in 2025 Q1, 0.3 percentage points weaker than expected at the time of the November Report. US share prices rose following the US presidential election result, as market contacts initially focused on the expected positive near-term growth impact from planned policies by the new US administration.

…and an indicator of market-based inflation compensation has trended down over 2024, though it remains above its pre-Covid average. DMP Survey respondents’ expectation for their own price inflation in a year’s time remained elevated at around 4%, however, and has edged up slightly in recent months. Consistent with that, Bank staff analysis suggests the developments in short-term household inflation expectations are broadly in line with what might be expected given developments in the wider economy.

Business surveys have suggested a smoother path for GDP growth in recent quarters. Although GDP growth has been more volatile than suggested by business surveys, underlying growth appears to have slowed since the middle of last year. Having grown solidly in the first half of the year, GDP growth was flat in 2024 Q3, 0.2 percentage points below the projection in the November Report. In line with the recovery in housing market activity, nominal house prices have continued to pick up. Banks responding to the 2024 Q4 Credit Conditions Survey also reported increased availability of secured lending to households, which was expected to continue into 2025 Q1. Consumer credit growth has moderated somewhat in recent months, to 6.5% in December, and is now broadly in line with its 2012–19 average.